Real Estate Modeling for Maximum Return

Introduction

You're modeling a prospective deal and need a tool that turns market views-rental growth, vacancy, and financing-into actual cash and return numbers so you can decide to buy, hold, or sell. Models convert assumptions into cash and IRR outcomes. Start by stating investor goals up front: target IRR 12-18%, target cash yield 4-7%, and intended hold period 5-7 years. Set a model horizon of 5-10 years (use 2025 as the base year-e.g., 2025-2030 for a five-year plan) and run a monthly cadence in year 1, annual thereafter to capture lease-up timing. Document all assumptions up front-rents, vacancy, operating expenses, capex, financing, and exit cap rate-and defintely run sensitivities on exit cap and vacancy because those drive most of the IRR variance.

Key Takeaways

• State investor goals and cadence up front: target IRR 12-18%, cash yield 4-7%, hold 5-7 years; model horizon 5-10 years with monthly cadence in year 1 and annual thereafter.
• Document a single-source inputs sheet for all assumptions (rents, vacancy, op ex, capex, financing, exit cap) and use a modular, auditable model structure.
• Produce core KPIs (NOI, cap rate valuation, cash‑on‑cash, IRR, equity multiple, DSCR) and show annual/cumulative cash flows; exit price = NOI_yearN / exit_cap_rate.
• Run sensitivities and stress tests-prioritize exit cap and vacancy (and rent/interest moves); calculate max purchase price for target IRR and flag covenant breach risks.
• Focus on operational and capital levers to boost returns; immediate action: Finance builds a 5‑year model (monthly year 1), run three scenarios, Ops validates inputs (deadline: Friday).

Building the core financial model

Takeaway: Start with a single-source inputs sheet, a modular workbook, and a clear cash-flow waterfall so every assumption maps to cash and investor returns. Do those three things first and you'll save days of rework and reduce valuation error.

Single-source inputs and auditable formula structure

You're building a model where a single change ripples everywhere-so make that change deliberate. Put every assumption on one Inputs sheet, with provenance (source, date, author) next to each cell.

Steps and best practices:

• List inputs only once; reference them elsewhere by cell name.
• Use named ranges or a structured table for each input group.
• Lock formula cells; allow edits only on Inputs sheet.
• Include data validation (dates, % bounds) and a source column.
• Add inline commentary for estimates vs actuals.

Essential input items (example inputs for a 2025 fiscal-year illustrative model):

• Purchase price: $25,000,000
• Gross rentable area: 100,000 sf
• Gross potential rent: $2,400,000 / year
• Vacancy: 7.0% initial
• Rental growth: 3.0% / year
• Operating expenses: 35.0% of effective gross income
• Property tax rate: 1.20% of assessed value
• Reserves and capital: $300,000 annual reserve (illustrative)

Here's the quick math for Year 1 NOI using the example inputs: gross potential rent $2,400,000 × (1 - vacancy 7.0%) = effective gross income $2,232,000; minus op ex (35.0% × $2,232,000 = $781,200) => NOI $1,450,800. What this estimate hides: tenant roll timing, abatements, and one-off reimbursements-document those separately.

Modular breakdown and cash flow waterfall

Split the workbook into clear modules: income, expenses, financing, capex, taxes, returns, and sensitivities. Keep formulas auditable by module and reconcile module subtotals on a Summary sheet.

Practical module rules:

• Create one sheet per module and a P&L bridge sheet that links only to module outputs.
• Use monthly detail in year one, annual after; link rollups with SUMPRODUCT or structured table formulas.
• Build a CapEx timing sheet (date, amount, classification) that feeds both cash flow and depreciation schedules.
• Keep tax calc separate: depreciation, taxable income, and deferred items on their own sheet.

Modeling the cash-flow waterfall (step-by-step):

• Start with Cash Available for Distribution = NOI - debt service - recurring capex - reserves.
• Allocate to Return of Capital, then Preferred Return (example 8.0% preferred), then Sponsor Catch-up, then Promote tiers.
• Accrue unpaid preferred amounts and track cumulative unpaid balance.
• Compute IRR and equity multiple on the equity schedule after each distribution.

Worked example (using earlier NOI and a simple debt): assume loan = 60% LTV => loan $15,000,000; interest-only rate 5.50% in year 1 => annual debt service $825,000. Cash available = NOI $1,450,800 - debt service $825,000 - reserves $150,000 = $475,800. Preferred return due to equity (purchase - debt = $10,000,000) at 8.0% = $800,000 - so distribution covers part of the preferred and accrues the remainder. Model the timing: show paid vs accrued in each period. Small typo: defintely version your waterfalls so you can roll back if a promote change breaks payouts.

Version control, auditing, and change log

Models change constantly-give every file a timestamped version and a readable change log inside the workbook. That makes results auditable and repeatable.

Concrete steps:

• Use a naming convention: ModelName_v{major}.{minor}_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMM.xlsx for exports.
• Keep a Change Log sheet with columns: timestamp, user, cell/range, old value, new value, reason, ticket/PR.
• Save one canonical master on secure cloud; use check-in/check-out or permissions to avoid concurrent edits.
• Protect formulas and sheet structure; provide an Inputs-only edit view for non-finance users.
• Use a compare tool (Excel Inquire or spreadsheet diff) before each release and store snapshots.

Governance checklist for signoffs:

• Finance: reconcile model totals to source documents.
• Ops: validate rent roll and vacancy assumptions.
• Legal/Tax: review depreciation assumptions and tax treatment.
• Executive: signoff on final underwriting and waterfall structure.

Next step: Finance to build the single-source Inputs sheet and populate with actual rent-roll and vendor contracts by Friday; Ops to validate tenant dates and concessions by Wednesday.

Valuation and return metrics

You're sizing returns and need a clear link from property assumptions to investor outcomes; the quick takeaway: get NOI right, stress the exit cap sensitivity, and solve for the maximum purchase price that still hits your target IRR. One-liner: if NOI is accurate, the rest becomes math.

Investor KPIs and NOI mechanics

Start with a short list of the KPIs every investor reads first.

• Net operating income (NOI)
• Cap rate (capitalization rate)
• Cash-on-cash return
• Internal rate of return (IRR)
• Equity multiple
• Debt service coverage ratio (DSCR)

Define each KPI in plain terms and keep formulas auditable. For example: NOI = gross potential rent - vacancy - operating expenses. Use a single-source rent roll and separate vacancy assumptions by unit type.

Practical steps and checks:

• Build a rent-roll tab per unit/lease.
• Apply vacancy as a % off gross potential rent.
• Split op ex: fixed vs variable; model fixed growth.
• Reconcile budgeted expenses to market comps.
• Trace every KPI to one line in the inputs sheet.

Worked 2025 fiscal-year example (illustrative): assume $1,200,000 gross potential rent, 5% vacancy, and $300,000 operating expenses. Here's the quick math: NOI = $1,200,000 - $60,000 - $300,000 = $840,000.

Real Estate Financing, Taxes, and Capital Stack

You're picking debt and equity for a deal and need a model that shows how financing choices change liquidity risk, taxable income, and final returns - fast.

One-liner: structure debt and equity so the model answers who pays what, when, and how a stress event breaks the deal.

Financing choice and debt modeling

Start by mapping financing to three outcomes: cash flow (monthly/annual debt service), liquidity risk (covenants and refinance windows), and levered return (equity IRR/multiple). Build these into the model as separate modules and link them to your cash flow and sensitivity tabs.

Steps and best practices

• Set loan inputs on a single line: loan amount, interest rate (fixed/variable), amortization, interest-only (IO) period, and fees.
• Build a full amortization schedule (monthly year 1) showing interest, principal, balance, and cumulative interest.
• Calculate annual debt service and monthly debt service for DSCR checks; link to operating cash flow.
• Model prepayment mechanics: yield maintenance, defeasance, or fixed prepay fee.
• Timestamp assumptions and keep a change log for rate resets and covenant waivers.

Concrete example (use in your model)

• Purchase price: $20,000,000
• Loan: 65% LTV = $13,000,000
• Rate: 6.00% fixed, amortization: 30 years, no IO period
• Annual debt service (30-yr @ 6%): ~$935,376 (use monthly amort schedule)
• Noisy metric: with NOI = $1,500,000, DSCR = 1.60 (NOI / debt service)

What to stress-test

• Rate shock: +200 bps raises annual interest from ~$780,000 to ~$1,040,000 on a $13M loan - update debt service and DSCR.
• IO periods: model both the initial cash relief and the later payment shock when IO ends.
• Fees: include origination fee 0.5-2.0% and closing costs in equity needs.

Equity tiers, waterfalls, and sponsor economics

Structure the capital stack so cash flows and exit proceeds flow exactly as investors expect. Put the waterfall math in a separate, auditable sheet and show cash flow by investor tranche every distribution period.

Steps and best practices

• List equity tiers: LP common, LP preferred (pref), sponsor equity. Show capital calls and catch-up mechanics.
• Model a waterfall with tiers: return of capital, preferred return, promote (carried interest), sponsor catch-up. Make formulas explicit and line-itemed.
• Show IRR and equity multiple by tier and a blended investor IRR.
• Include clawbacks and GP return traps (e.g., distribute promote only if final IRR hurdle maintained).
• Run sensitivity on sponsor promote cliffs and different pref rates.

Concrete waterfall example

• Total equity required: $7,000,000 (gap after $13M debt on $20M purchase)
• Preferred return to LPs: 8.0% annually
• Promote split after pref: first 70/30 (LP/GP) until LP achieves 12% IRR, then 50/50 above that
• Sponsor catch-up: model a catch-up that allocates next distributions to GP until the agreed split is reached - show cash flow path and sample numbers year-by-year.

Quick math: if annual free cash flow to equity = $400,000, pref to LPs = $560,000 on $7M equity at 8% - the model shows shortfalls and how promote accrues.

Taxes, depreciation, and refinance vs sale decisions at DSCR thresholds

Taxes change the timing of cash available and the after-tax exit proceeds. Model tax in two layers: annual taxable income (flow-through) and terminal tax on sale (capital gains and depreciation recapture).

Steps and tax mechanics to include

• Allocate purchase price to land and building. Use straight-line depreciation: 27.5 years for residential, 39 years for commercial - annual dep = building basis / life.
• Calculate taxable income = NOI - interest expense - depreciation - other deductible items.
• Estimate annual cash tax = taxable income × assumed effective tax rate (use investor-specific rate; model scenarios: 20%, 30%, 37%).
• Model sale taxes: long-term capital gains at 20% plus NIIT at 3.8%; depreciation recapture taxed at 25%. Include state tax assumptions separately.
• Include 1031 exchange and opportunity zone mechanics as alternate exit paths - show net proceeds after tax for sale vs 1031 deferral.

Concrete tax example (work through in the model)

• Building basis (85% of $20M) = $17,000,000; commercial depreciation = $435,897 per year (17,000,000 / 39).
• First-year interest ≈ $780,000 on $13M at 6% (approximate; use amort schedule for exact).
• Taxable income = NOI $1,500,000 - interest $780,000 - depreciation $435,897 = $284,103.
• Assuming combined effective tax rate 30%, cash tax ≈ $85,231 - but cash-to-owner may be higher because depreciation shields taxable income vs cash flow.

Refinance versus sale analysis tied to DSCR

• Define refinance thresholds: lenders commonly require DSCR between 1.25 and 1.35 for permanent loans; CMBS and HUD programs may have different thresholds.
• When DSCR ≥ 1.35, a refinance for a lower rate or stretch amortization is likely; model proceeds available for recap, sponsor distribution, or capex.
• When DSCR 1.15-1.35, options include bridge financing, capital infusion, or partial sale; model equity top-up amounts to restore DSCR.
• When DSCR 1.15, sale is often the only lender-friendly path; model forced-sale price assumptions and stress recovery rates.
• Compare refinance vs sale using after-tax proceeds, transaction costs, and timing. Always show the DSCR that triggers each path and the minimum exit cap rate required to hit target equity returns.

Practical action (owner)

• Finance: build amortization and tax modules and run refinance vs sale scenarios at DSCR = 1.35, 1.25, 1.15 by Friday - Ops to validate NOI inputs.

Stress testing and scenario analysis

Run base, downside, and upside cases with clear probability or rationale

You're running stress tests to see how assumptions translate to cash and return outcomes, so start by naming three distinct cases and why each matters.

One-liner: define cases, attach rationale, and assign probabilities.

Steps:

• Build cases on a single inputs sheet for traceability.
• Base case: best estimate of rents, vacancy, op ex, financing, exit cap-used for underwriting.
• Downside case: conservative moves (lower rents, higher vacancy, cap-rate widening); document drivers (recession, local oversupply, tenant defaults).
• Upside case: faster lease-up, rent premiums, lower cap-rate on sale; tie to explicit catalysts (new tenant, NAV-enhancing capex).
• Attach a probability or rationale to each case (example split: 60% base, 25% downside, 15% upside) and record why.

Best practices:

• Keep scenarios auditable: timestamped input sets and a change log.
• Use scenario flags in model cells so outputs recalc cleanly.
• Report KPIs side-by-side: IRR, equity multiple, cash-on-cash, DSCR for each case.

Sensitize rents, vacancy, and exit cap rates; calculate max purchase price that preserves target IRR under downside

Run parametric tables for the key levers: rent growth, vacancy, and exit cap rate; then back-solve the max purchase price that still hits your investor target IRR under the downside.

One-liner: grid the variables, then solve for price that meets target IRR.

How to sensitize:

• Set ranges: rent growth +/- 100-300 bps (±1%-3%), vacancy +100-300 bps (+1%-3%), exit cap rate +/- 50-200 bps (0.5%-2.0%).
• Run a 3x3 or 5x5 table (rows = rent growth, columns = exit cap) and show IRR and cash yields in each cell.
• Include combined shocks: rent down 200 bps and exit cap up 150 bps, etc.

How to calculate maximum safe purchase price (practical worked example):

• Assume target equity IRR = 15%, hold = 5 years, equity = 30% (LTV = 70%), downside stabilized NOI Year1 = $850,000 (after a 15% hit), no growth to Year 5, exit cap = 8.0%.
• Exit price = NOI Year5 / exit cap = $10,625,000.
• Assume interest-only debt at 4.5%; annual cash flow to equity ≈ NOI - interest (interest = loan × rate = 0.7 × P × 4.5%).
• Set IRR equation and solve for purchase price P so that discounted equity cash flows + sale proceeds produce 15% IRR. Using present-value factors at 15% for 5 years, the algebra yields a max purchase price ≈ $10,800,000.

Here's the quick math in plain terms: lower NOI and a higher exit cap compress sale proceeds; debt service reduces annual cash; to keep equity IRR at 15% you must pay no more than ~$10.8M in this downside. What this estimate hides: amortization, changing debt balance, tax effects, and lease-up timing-so refine with the full model.

Best practices:

• Automate the back-solve using goal-seek or a small VBA/solver routine and store results per scenario.
• Run the max-price calc at multiple target IRRs (e.g., 12%, 15%, 18%) and present as a price-IRR curve.
• Document assumptions for interest, amortization, and sale costs; small changes move the price materially.

Use a waterfall of stress events and flag covenant breaches with remediation paths

Sequence likely stressors so you see cascading effects; then map covenant triggers and practical fixes before they happen.

One-liner: model event sequences, watch covenant thresholds, and pre-design fixes.

Waterfall of stress events (how to build):

• List events by likelihood and lead time: recession, interest-rate spike, tenant bankruptcy, concentrated lease expiries, construction delays.
• Layer events in order (example): vacancy shock → rent reprice → NOI drop → DSCR fall → covenant test failure → lender action.
• Quantify the impact of each node on NOI, cash flow, and loan balance; run the cascade rather than isolated shocks.

Common covenant triggers to model and the remediation toolkit:

• DSCR breach (e.g., covenant DSCR 1.25x): remediate by raising short-term equity, deferring distributions, negotiating payment holiday, or swapping to interest-only for 12 months.
• LTV breach (e.g., covenant LTV > 75%): remediate by equity cure, partial sale of non-core assets, or lender forbearance with amended covenants.
• Minimum NOI or occupancy triggers: remediate via accelerated leasing plan, temporary rent concessions to retain tenants, or hiring a leasing specialist.

Operational remediation playbook (fast actions):

• Preserve cash: cut non-essential capex for 90 days and halt distributions.
• Lock covenants: pre-negotiate waiver frameworks with lenders during underwriting.
• Raise liquidity: secure a committed subordinate facility or bridge line before stress hits.
• Asset actions: accelerate ancillary revenue (parking, storage), run targeted concessions, or lease to short-term tenants at premium.

Monitoring and governance:

• Set automated flags: weekly DSCR, LTV, rolling 90-day cash runway.
• Assign owners for triggers: Finance owns covenant monitoring; Ops owns leasing recovery; Capital Markets owns refinancing options.
• Practice a quarterly stress-drill: run a cascade stress and review remediation playbook with lenders and sponsors.

Next step and owner: Finance - run the three-case cascade, produce the max-purchase-price matrix, and deliver the change log by Friday; Ops validate leasing/timing inputs by Wednesday.

Execution levers to maximize return

You're pushing to lift returns from an asset where the market and financing levers are mostly set; focus on operations, selective capex, and timing of capital events to create real value.

Quick takeaway: operational fixes and focused capex usually beat marginal debt tweaks - aim first for a 20%+ ROI on project-level capex, tighten lease-up to cut vacancy by 200-400 bps, and monitor weekly KPIs to catch problems early.

Operational and revenue plays

You can raise cash flow faster by shortening lease-up, boosting ancillary income, and using targeted concessions to trade time for price. Start with a 90-day action plan that your leasing, ops, and marketing teams own.

• Measure lease-up in days and dollars; target a reduction of 30-60 days.
• Test ancillary fees: parking, storage, pet rent-pilot one fee, aim for 0.5-1.0% NOI uplift in 90 days.
• Use targeted concessions (free month, reduced deposit) only where they improve effective rent within 6-12 months.
• Prioritize lease audits: ensure rents roll to market on renewal; capture back-rent and CPI clauses.
• Apply rental growth tactics: stagger renewals to lock in 3-5% annual increases where market permits.

One clean line: Revenue actions pay back fast and are measurable in weeks.

Here's the quick math for an ancillary test: if the asset has 100 units and adding a $25/month amenity fee converts 70% of units, annual incremental NOI ≈ $21,000 (100 × 70% × $25 × 12), minus $3,000 admin cost - net ~$18,000.

What this estimate hides: tenant pushback, collection lag, and compliance limits - pilot small, then scale.

Cost plays and capital plays

Cutting costs and choosing the right capital instrument compound returns. Start by targeting non-labor contracts and then move to strategic capex that repositions the asset for higher rents.

• Renegotiate vendor contracts: aim to save 5-15% on big line items (landscaping, security, cleaning).
• Track turnover costs: calculate cost per unit turnover (relet + repair + lost rent) and reduce by improving retention - defintely track turnover cost.
• Prioritize capex with > 20% project IRR; use a 5-year payback filter for smaller projects.
• Use bridge loans for 12-24 month repositioning to avoid long-term expensive leverage; price breakpoints: prefer bridges with spreads that keep total debt cost < exit yield minus 300 bps.
• Time refinancing: model refinance when stabilized NOI exceeds underwritten stress case by 10-15%.
• Structure exits tax-efficiently: 1031 exchanges, opportunity zones, or installment sales can defer or reduce taxable gains; model tax drag in cash flow scenarios.

One clean line: Prioritize projects that pay back fast and increase sustainable NOI.

Here's the quick math for a capex decision: capex $200,000 that raises annual NOI by $50,000 yields a capex ROI of 25% and pays back in 4 years; if financing costs exceed expected NOI improvement, don't proceed.

What this estimate hides: implementation risk, tenant disruption, and timing of permits - add a 10-20% contingency in the model.

Monitor KPIs and run disciplined execution

Weekly monitoring forces early fixes. Build a one-page dashboard your ops team reviews every Monday and your finance team updates monthly for investor reporting.

• Track same-store NOI week-over-week and month-over-month; flag > 100 bps divergence from plan.
• Watch rent per SF, occupancy, lease roll schedule, and tenant concentration; set alerts for leases > 10% of NOI.
• Monitor capex ROI by project: expected vs actual cash flow and completion variance.
• Maintain a covenant dashboard: DSCR, LTV, and liquidity; model remediation steps for breaches.
• Run a 13-week cash forecast updated weekly for short-term liquidity decisions.

One clean line: If you don't measure it weekly, it won't be fixed quickly enough.

Here's the quick math for a covenant flag: if DSCR covenant is 1.25x and debt service is $120,000/year, required NOI = $120,000 × 1.25 = $150,000; if projected NOI falls below that, trigger refinancing or cost cuts.

What this estimate hides: timing variances in rent receipts and seasonality - run weekly and stress monthly.

Next step: Finance to produce a 5-year cash model with monthly year 1 and three scenarios; Ops to validate leasing inputs; owner: Finance, deadline Friday.

Real Estate Modeling for Maximum Return - Actionable closeout

Link assumptions to operational and financing actions

You're trying to make model assumptions actually change behavior, not sit in a spreadsheet.

One-liner: Map every assumption to an owner and a trigger.

Start by building an assumptions register with owner, measurement frequency, and trigger. For each line item (rents, vacancy, op ex, capex, financing), state the operational action that follows a variance. Example actions:

• Adjust asking rents if leased rent $0.50 below target per SF across 100,000 SF → yields $50,000 NOI gap.
• Increase leasing budget when vacancy > target + 200 bps for two consecutive months.
• Delay non-critical capex if projected IRR < 20% for that project.
• Trigger refinance discussions when projected DSCR > 1.35 or refinance risk if DSCR < 1.25.

Best practices:

• Use clear owners (Leasing, Ops, Finance) and single-point contacts.
• Link every material assumption to a measurable KPI (rent per SF, occupancy %, NOI, DSCR).
• Embed remediation steps: who signs budget, who approves concessions, who negotiates debt.

What the estimate hides: operational actions take time-onboarding new leasing agents or issuing an RFP for contractors can take 30-90 days, so triggers must include lead time. Also, defintely track turnover cost per unit and link to capex prioritization.

Build the 5-year cash flow and run three scenarios

You need a runnable file this week that shows monthly cash to equity for year 1 and annual years 2-5, with base, downside, and upside scenarios.

One-liner: Deliver a 5‑year, auditable model with three scenarios by Friday.

Concrete steps:

• Finance: create a single-source inputs sheet and template (monthly year 1, annual years 2-5). Target deliverable: model file with assumptions tab, rent roll, pro forma, financing schedule, waterfall.
• Define scenarios up front: base (rent growth 3%/yr, vacancy 7%), downside (rent growth 0%, vacancy 12%), upside (rent growth 5%, vacancy 4%).
• Include sensitivities: rent ± 100-300 bps, exit cap ± 50-200 bps, interest ± 100 bps.
• Produce outputs: annual NOI, exit price, levered IRR, cash-on-cash, equity multiple, cumulative cash schedule, and waterfall.

Schedule and owners (dates based on today):

• Draft model: Finance to deliver initial file by Friday, Dec 5, 2025.
• Validate inputs: Ops to confirm lease roll, capex plan, and vendor costs by Tuesday, Dec 9, 2025.
• Run scenarios & sensitivities: Finance to deliver scenario pack and PDF dashboard by Friday, Dec 12, 2025.
• Review: Asset Manager to review and CFO to sign-off within 3 business days of receipt.

Quick math example: if Year 5 NOI = $1,250,000 and exit cap = 6.0%, exit price = $20,833,333 (NOI / cap rate). What this hides: fees, taxes, and market liquidity can shave 200-500 bps off realized cap rates at exit.

Active watchlist: interest-rate moves, local cap rates, lease expirations

You must monitor a handful of market signals and portfolio concentration risks weekly and act when thresholds hit.

One-liner: Flag any item that changes cash flow by > 5% or debt terms by meaningful covenant breach.

Watchlist items and thresholds:

• Interest rates: track 10‑year Treasury and lender spreads; trigger review if 10y moves > 50 bps in 30 days or projected mortgage rate moves > 75 bps.
• Local market cap rates: revalue if local mid-market cap rates shift by ≥ 25 bps; a +50 bps move can cut enterprise value by ~7-8% depending on NOI growth.
• Lease expirations: flag any expirations > 15% of base rent within 24 months; require mitigation plan (renewals, subleasing, tenant improvements).
• Covenants: flag forecast DSCR < 1.25 or LTV creeps > covenant limit; prepare remediation (equity cure, covenant waiver, reserve draws).
• Vendor concentration: renegotiate if any vendor > 10% of op ex.

Operational monitoring cadence:

• Weekly: same-store NOI, occupancy, rent per SF, lease roll changes.
• Monthly: cash flow vs forecast, capex spend vs ROI, debt service schedule.
• Quarterly: valuation check vs market cap rates, covenant stress test, refinance windows within 18 months.

Next step and owner: Finance to draft the 5‑year cash model (monthly year 1) and deliver base/downside/upside scenarios by Friday, Dec 5, 2025; Ops to validate inputs by Dec 9, 2025.