IPO Modeling: A Comprehensive Guide

Introduction

You're preparing an IPO model to price shares, size the deal, and forecast post-listing performance, so the core job is to turn accounting and market signals into a clear funding plan and investor pitch. Build a repeatable financial story that underpins valuation and investor terms. The scope is pragmatic: stitch public filings into a forecast model with 3-5 year projections, run sensitivity and upside/downside cases, and show an explicit allocation of proceeds (for example: runway extension, capex, and debt paydown); here's the quick math: implied market cap = price per share × diluted shares, and proceeds = primary shares × offer price. You'll defintely want clean scenario labels and a short appendix to trace every assumption back to a filing or analyst note.

Key Takeaways

• Build a repeatable financial story that ties public filings and normalized historicals to investor-facing valuation and deal terms.
• Produce 3-5 year forecasts with clear drivers (revenue cohorts, margins, opex), a FCF bridge, and an explicit allocation of proceeds; remember implied market cap = price × diluted shares and proceeds = primary shares × offer price.
• Map IPO readiness and process: pre-IPO audit, S‑1 filing, roadshow/pricing, listing, required governance and disclosure items, and common timeline bottlenecks.
• Use multiple valuation approaches-comps, precedents, and a DCF with terminal value-and run sensitivity tables on growth, margin expansion, and WACC.)
• Model deal mechanics (shares, options, pre-IPO financing), quantify dilution and pro forma ownership, stress-test runway/covenants, and set KPIs and a reporting cadence for post‑IPO monitoring.

Readiness and IPO process overview

You're preparing Company Name for an IPO and need a clear, executable roadmap that links audited history, the S-1 story, the roadshow, and pricing to the final listing. Quick takeaway: plan for 6-18 months of structured work, budget underwriting and legal fees upfront, and lock tasks to firm milestones so nothing surprises investors or the market.

Map the roadmap: pre-IPO audit, SEC filing (S-1), roadshow, pricing, listing

Start with a backwards schedule from listing day and build a milestone plan you can track weekly. Typical sequence and practical steps:

• Pre-IPO readiness - establish controls, audit teams, and external advisors; allow 3-9 months before formal filing.
• Audit - get 2-3 years of audited GAAP financials if you're not an emerging growth company (EGC); expect 3-6 months of auditor work for each year of audit depending on complexity.
• S-1 drafting - draft the registration statement with counsel and accounting; allocate 4-8 weeks for internal iterations before filing.
• SEC review - plan for 2-6 review rounds over roughly 45-90 days; respond inline and track comment status daily.
• Roadshow - prepare investor presentation, rehearsals, and data room; run a typical roadshow over 7-10 business days.
• Pricing and listing - price the deal usually the evening before trading, then list within 1-3 days; lock-up periods commonly last 180 days.

Best practices: freeze GAAP numbers 4 weeks before filing, run dress rehearsals for Q&A, and pre-approve key messaging with counsel. One-liner: build the timeline first, then fit compliance and story into the timebox.

Define governance and disclosures needed for public markets

Public companies must meet legal, accounting, and exchange governance standards. Focus on what investors and regulators will check first.

• Board and committees - exchanges require a majority independent board and an independent audit committee; appoint a financial expert early.
• Internal controls - CEOs and CFOs must sign SOX 302 (internal control certification); SOX 404 auditor attestation timing depends on EGC status, so confirm classification early.
• Required disclosures - include MD&A (management discussion and analysis), risk factors, related-party transactions, executive compensation, legal proceedings, and two- or three-year audited statements per SEC rules.
• Policies and programs - prepare a code of conduct, insider-trading policy, disclosure controls, and a whistleblower channel before filing.

Practical items to assign now: Legal: draft charter and committee charters; HR: prepare executive comp history; Finance: map internal control gaps. One-liner: investors buy governance as much as growth - fix controls first.

Identify timeline, key milestones, and common hold-ups (audit, legal, market window)

Lay out a calendar with hard milestones, owners, and contingency slack. Typical milestone map (example timeline for a mid-market IPO):

• Months -12 to -9: readiness gap analysis; hire auditors and counsel.
• Months -9 to -6: complete audits for required years; close major accounting issues.
• Months -6 to -3: draft S-1 and prepare exhibits; board approves registration filing.
• Months -3 to 0: SEC review and comment cycles; finalize roadshow materials.
• Month 0: price, allocate, list; begin public reporting cadence.

Common hold-ups and how to avoid them:

• Audit delays - mitigate by running internal mock-audits and resolving revenue recognition or related-party issues before fieldwork.
• Legal review snags - pre-clear complex contracts, IP ownership, and litigation; keep counsel in the loop early.
• Market window - pricing can be delayed if volatility spikes; set a target pricing range and a backup date window of 3-7 business days.
• Proxy or governance fights - engage key shareholders and potential activists early to avoid late-stage disclosures that derails pricing.

Here's the quick math for fees: for a $200 million IPO, underwriter fees at about 7% equal $14 million; add legal and accounting of roughly $1-3 million depending on complexity. What this estimate hides: higher-if cross-border listings or complex tax/SEC issues exist.

Next step: Finance: produce a 13-week cash roll-forward and a redlineable S-1 finance section by Friday; assign ownership to the CFO and outside counsel for coordination - defintely start today.

Financial-model inputs and forecast mechanics

Collect historicals, normalize one-offs, and reconcile to GAAP

You're building an IPO model and your first job is to make the past clean so future projections aren't garbage in, garbage out.

One-liner: Strip irregulars and make sure the numbers tie to audited GAAP statements.

Steps to collect and verify historicals:

• Pull 3-5 years of audited statements and the trial balance
• Export sub-ledgers (AR, AP, payroll, fixed assets, deferred revenue)
• Match ledger to financials and note timing differences (cutoffs, accruals)
• Capture tax returns, audited notes, and MD&A for accounting policy changes

Normalize one-offs - how to and why:

• Flag true nonrecurring items: legal settlements, asset impairments, gain/loss on disposal
• Adjust for unusual revenue or cost timing (one customer large grant, FY2025 one‑time R&D refund of $2.5m)
• Convert stock-based comp (noncash) into a recurring view if management treats it as operational
• Document each adjustment with source doc, amount, and rationale for the roadshow

Reconcile to GAAP and watch accounting changes:

• Reconcile model line items to the audited balance sheet and cash flow statement every quarter
• Adjust for ASC 606 revenue recognition and ASC 842 leases where applicable
• Show a reconciliation table: GAAP EBITDA $10.0m + SBC $4.0m + restructuring $1.0m - gain $0.5m = Adjusted EBITDA $14.5m

Here's the quick math that investors expect: show GAAP → pro forma adjustments → IPO pro forma. What this estimate hides: normalization judgments can change valuation materially, so keep backup detail and auditor sign-off where possible (defintely get counsel input on disclosures).

Build drivers: revenue by cohort/product, gross margin curves, opex ladders

You need a driver-based model that tells a story - not just a flat growth rate - so investors can stress-test assumptions easily.

One-liner: Model revenue from the bottom up (cohorts/products) and link costs to those same drivers.

Revenue-by-cohort steps:

• Segment customers: new logo, expansion, enterprise, SMB, channel
• Model cohorts: starting cohort size, retention curve, ARPU (average revenue per user)
• Project churn and expansion rates per cohort; use historical cohorts and sanity-check against industry benchmarks
• Example math: 10,000 users × ARPU $50/mo × 12 = annual revenue $6,000,000

Gross-margin curves - practical approach:

• Break COGS into variable (hosting, fulfillment) and fixed (amortized infrastructure)
• Model unit cost per user or per transaction; show margin expansion from scale (example: gross margin improving from 55% to 70% over 3 years)
• Stress test input prices (cloud costs, freight) and FX where relevant

Opex ladders - practical rules:

• Separate R&D, sales & marketing, G&A; tag each as fixed vs variable
• Link hires to revenue: e.g., add 5 sales reps at fully-loaded $120k each to support 30% year growth
• Build a headcount waterfall: hires, ramp months, productivity (quota attainment), and timing of associated costs
• Show opex as % of revenue and in absolute dollars; example: SG&A falls from 25% of revenue to 18% as scale hits

Quick sensitivity: if churn doubles from 3% to 6%, show the revenue and CAC payback impact in a one‑page sensitivity table so the roadshow can read upside and downside clearly.

Model working capital, capex, and a 3-5 year free cash flow FCF bridge

You must translate the P&L drivers into cash - working capital swings and capex move liquidity more than growth assumptions in many IPOs.

One-liner: Convert operating assumptions into cash flow with clear formulas for receivables, inventory, payables, and capex.

Working-capital modeling steps:

• Use days metrics: DSO (receivables), DIO (inventory), DPO (payables)
• Formula: ΔReceivables = Revenue/365 × ΔDSO; ΔInventory = COGS/365 × ΔDIO
• Benchmark examples: SaaS DSO 30-60 days; manufacturing DIO 60-120 days
• Show a WC schedule by line item and link to balance-sheet cash flow entries

Capex - how to size and present:

• Express capex as % of revenue or per-user; software firms often forecast capex at 2-6% of revenue; hardware firms higher
• Separate maintenance capex (to sustain current operations) from growth capex (to support new products/markets)
• Document timing: upfront platform investment in Year 1 vs. steady state in Year 3+

Constructing the 3-5 year FCF bridge:

• Start with Adjusted EBITDA → subtract cash taxes → subtract ΔWorking Capital → subtract Capex → subtract cash interest → add/minus other cash items = Free Cash Flow
• Example: Adjusted EBITDA $14.5m - tax (21%) = -$3.045m; less capex $2.4m; less ΔWC $1.2m → FCF ≈ $7.855m
• Show a waterfall chart per year and a cumulative cash balance projection

Stress tests and covenant checks:

• Run scenarios: base, downside (growth -25%, margin -300bp), upside (growth +25%)
• Calculate runway: Cash balance / monthly net cash outflow (example: $30m cash / $2m monthly burn = 15 months)
• Model covenant triggers (debt EBITDA ratios) with breach dates under downside scenarios

Here's the quick math investors want to see: a clear annual FCF bridge and a quarterly 13-week roll-forward that ties to the model. Finance: draft the 3-year FCF bridge and the 13-week cash roll-forward by Friday and owner is the FP&A lead.

Valuation approaches and model implementations

You're building the valuation section of an IPO model to set a price range and defend investor returns; use three linked methods - comps, DCF, and sensitivity grids - so you can triangulate a defensible deal range quickly.

Direct takeaway: combine market multiples with a bottoms-up DCF and present sensitivity tables so investors see where value and risk sit.

Implement comparable-company multiples and precedent transactions

You need a market anchor that reflects what real buyers just paid and what public investors are paying today.

Steps to run comps and precedents

• Pick 6-12 comparables: match by industry, growth, margin, geography, and business model.
• Collect FY2024-FY2025 metrics: revenue, EBITDA, net income, net debt, shares outstanding.
• Standardize metrics: convert to EV (enterprise value) and normalize EBITDA (remove one-offs and nonrecurring items).
• Calculate multiples: EV/Revenue, EV/EBITDA, and P/E where applicable.
• Trim the set: use median and 25th/75th percentiles; drop outliers with documented reasons.
• Translate to implied equity value: Implied EV = multiple × your FY2025 metric; Equity value = EV - net debt + cash.
• Per-share price = Equity value ÷ diluted shares outstanding (include options, RSUs, pre-IPO converts).

Worked example (example numbers, FY2025 basis):

• FY2025 revenue: $150,000,000
• Median sector EV/Revenue = 4.5x → Implied EV = $675,000,000
• Net cash = $25,000,000 → Equity value = $700,000,000
• Diluted shares = 50,000,000 → Implied price = $14.00/share

What to watch

• Control for growth: higher-growth comps deserve higher multiples; adjust with a growth premium.
• Account for non-GAAP: reconcile adjusted EBITDA to GAAP to avoid being mispriced.
• Use transaction comps for takeover premium context; use public comps for IPO pricing pressure.

One-liner: comps show market expectations; precedents show what buyers actually paid - use both.

Build a DCF (discounted cash flow) with explicit forecast and terminal value

You want a bottoms-up valuation that ties your operating plan to intrinsic value; DCF forces discipline on assumptions and shows cash sensitivity.

Core steps

• Forecast revenue drivers for 3-5 years (by product/cohort), then forecast gross profit and operating expenses.
• Compute EBIT → NOPAT (net operating profit after tax). NOPAT = EBIT × (1 - tax rate).
• Add back noncash D&A, subtract capex and Δ working capital to get unlevered free cash flow (FCF).
• Discount FCFs using WACC (weighted average cost of capital) to get present value of explicit period.
• Estimate terminal value via Gordon Growth or exit multiple; discount to present and add to explicit PV to get enterprise value.
• Derive equity value: EV - net debt + cash, then divide by diluted shares for per-share value.

WACC inputs and practical rules

• Risk-free rate: use current 10-year Treasury (or swap curve) for 2025; pick a market risk premium between 5.5% and 6.5%.
• Beta: unlever and relever comparable betas to your target capital structure.
• Debt rate: use yield on similar-rated corporate debt or recent borrowing comps.
• Target capital structure: use long-run post-IPO mix; avoid pre-IPO leverage distortions.

Worked DCF example (example numbers, FY2025 baseline):

• Explicit FCFs: 2026 $12,000,000, 2027 $18,000,000, 2028 $25,000,000, 2029 $33,000,000
• WACC = 9.5%, terminal growth g = 2.5%
• Terminal value = FCF_2029 × (1+g) / (WACC - g) = $483,200,000
• PV(explicit) ≈ $68,100,000; PV(terminal) ≈ $337,600,000; implied EV ≈ $405,700,000

What this estimate hides

• Terminal assumptions dominate: small changes in WACC or g move value lots.
• FCF timing matters: capex-heavy years pull forward cash strain even if long-run margins look great.

One-liner: DCF ties your operating story to cash and makes discount-rate assumptions explicit - defintely check terminal sensitivity.

Run sensitivity tables: revenue growth, margin expansion, WACC (cost of capital)

Sensitivities convert model uncertainty into a clear range investors can digest; present a compact table for the roadshow.

How to build practical sensitivity analyses

• Pick 2-3 key drivers: revenue CAGR (explicit period), terminal EBIT margin (or FCF conversion), and WACC.
• Build a matrix: rows = revenue scenarios, columns = WACC scenarios; populate with implied per-share values or EV.
• Also run 2D margin vs growth and a tornado chart for single-driver impact ranking.
• Highlight breakpoints: the WACC or growth rate where implied price falls below pre-IPO investors' required return.

Example sensitivity table (example numbers; per-share values based on the DCF example above):

How to present to investors

• Show a base-case cell, a conservative cell, and an aggressive cell - label assumptions clearly.
• Explain which assumptions are management-controlled (margin, capex) vs market-driven (WACC, multiples).
• Include a sensitivity that isolates leverage or post-IPO buyback impacts on EPS and per-share value.

One-liner: sensitivity tables turn model uncertainty into a visible range investors can stress-test quickly.

Next step: Finance - build the 3-5 year DCF and a 3×3 sensitivity matrix using FY2025 figures and deliver by Friday; Investor Relations: prepare a one-page slide of the sensitivity table for the roadshow.

Deal structure, dilution, and proceeds use

You're sizing the IPO so investors see the capital math and founders see the dilution - build a clear pro forma cap table, show per-share proceeds, and tie every dollar raised to a use case the market can test.

Model shares outstanding, options, RSUs, and pre-IPO financing effects

Start by reconciling every claim on equity into a single fully diluted share count (FD): common shares, preferred that convert, vested options, unvested RSUs, warrants, and convertible instruments (notes, SAFEs).

Steps to build the FD calculation:

• List issued common shares and preferred shares that will convert on IPO.
• Include vested options and RSUs; separately model unvested grants and expected vesting schedule.
• Price-convert SAFEs/notes using their contractual mechanics (cap, discount, or fixed conversion price).
• Decide option-pool treatment: pre-money top-up vs post-money target - each changes dilution materially.

Example (concrete 2025 illustrative numbers):

• Pre-IPO common outstanding: 40,000,000
• Granted options (vested): 4,000,000
• RSUs (unvested): 1,000,000
• Convertible note: $30,000,000 converting at $12.00 → 2,500,000 shares
• Planned new primary shares at IPO: 10,000,000 at expected price $15.00

Quick math: FD before new issue = 40,000,000 + 4,000,000 + 1,000,000 + 2,500,000 = 47,500,000. If you target a post-money option pool of 10%, you need a top-up of 6,388,889 shares (solve t = 0.1(47.5M + 10M + t)). That produces a pro forma diluted share count of 63,888,889.

What this estimate hides: treatment of anti-dilution clauses, multiple SAFE tranches with caps, and option vesting assumptions - run alternative cases.

Calculate pro forma ownership, dilution, and per-share proceeds

Show ownership on the same pro forma basis investors will demand: each holder's shares divided by pro forma diluted shares. Present percentage-point dilution from pre-IPO ownership to pro forma ownership.

Concrete ownership example using the pro forma FD above:

• Founders (assume 24,000,000 shares): 37.6% (24,000,000 / 63,888,889)
• Public IPO buyers (10,000,000 shares): 15.7%
• Total option pool (4,000,000 + 6,388,889 = 10,388,889): 16.3%
• Convertible holders (2,500,000): 3.9%

Founder dilution: down from 60.0% pre-IPO (24M/40M) to 37.6% post-IPO → a 22.4 percentage-point decline.

Per-share proceeds math (example): gross proceeds = 10,000,000 shares × $15.00 = $150,000,000. Underwriting fee (assume 7%) = $10,500,000, leaving $139,500,000. Less transaction costs (legal, accounting, blue-sky, say $5,000,000) → net to company = $134,500,000. Net per-share to company = $13.45.

Best-practice checks: show both gross and net proceeds per share, present alternative pricing scenarios (±20%) and resulting dilution, and disclose whether option-pool top-up is pre- or post-money in the S-1 - that changes investor economics materially.

Allocate proceeds: growth capex, debt paydown, working capital, buybacks

Allocate proceeds in the S-1 with tranche timing and measurable KPIs. Markets punish vague language; be specific with dollars, timing, and milestones.

Practical allocation framework:

• Prioritize runway and strategic growth (product, capex, go-to-market).
• Pay down high-cost debt or remove covenant risk where it improves EBITDA leverage.
• Reserve a working-capital buffer tied to seasonality and 13-week cash model.
• Defer buybacks until stable quarter-to-quarter cash generation and covenant clearance.

Example allocation of net proceeds $134,500,000 (illustrative):

• Growth capex & R&D (40%): $53,800,000
• Sales & marketing scale (25%): $33,625,000
• Debt paydown (15%): $20,175,000
• Working capital / 18-24 month runway (10%): $13,450,000
• Strategic tuck-ins / limited buybacks (10%): $13,450,000

Implementation tips:

• Link each bucket to a KPI (e.g., capex → latency reduction, S&M → CAC payback < 12 months).
• Stage spend in tranches tied to milestones (release v2, enter two major markets).
• Keep a covenants/credit schedule: if you pay down a term loan, show covenant relief and pro forma interest savings.
• For buybacks, get board pre-approval and disclose mechanics; defintely avoid using IPO proceeds for aggressive buybacks in year 1 unless cash generation is proven.

Roadshow-ready output: a one-page use-of-proceeds table with exact dollar amounts, timing buckets, and three KPIs tied to each bucket - that's what analysts and investors will test.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday

Risk, governance, and post-IPO monitoring

Stress-test cash runway, covenant triggers, and liquidity scenarios

You're going public and need to prove the business survives shocks - so model cash under clear scenarios and trigger points now.

Start with a 13-week cash roll and extend to a 24-36 month runway in three scenarios: base, downside, and severe. One-liner: run a cash ladder that breaks at covenant lines.

Here's the quick math for runway: runway months = cash on hand / average monthly net cash outflow. Example: with $100,000,000 cash and $6,000,000 monthly burn, runway = 16.7 months. What this estimate hides: seasonality, delayed receivables, and one-off cash items.

Model these shocks and actions step-by-step:

• Reduce revenue by 15-40% depending on severity.
• Compress gross margin by 200-500 bps (basis points).
• Delay non-essential capex by 30-100%.
• Assume AR days lengthen by 10-30 days; AP days shorten by 5-15 days.
• Include covenant breach waterfall: notice period, cure options, lender consent costs.

Check common covenant metrics each month: interest coverage ratio (EBITDA / interest), leverage (net debt / EBITDA), and minimum liquidity floor. Typical safe thresholds to model: interest coverage above 2.0x, leverage below 3.5x, minimum liquidity > $25,000,000 - but tailor to your debt docs. If a breach occurs, map immediate fixes: cut discretionary spend, delay hires, or negotiate a waiver.

Set KPIs for investor updates: revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA, churn, CAC payback

Investors want a short dashboard that shows momentum and unit economics; pick 6-8 KPIs and publish the same definitions each quarter.

One-liner: use consistent KPI math so investors track progress, not new stories.

Core KPI definitions and targets (examples you should model):

• Revenue growth: year-over-year % and quarter-over-quarter %; high-growth targets often 30-60% YoY.
• Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP): EBITDA plus recurring adjustments (stock comp, M&A fees) - disclose each add-back.
• Gross margin: product or cohort margins, shown as % of revenue; track expansion/contraction vs. plan.
• Net logo churn (customers) and revenue churn: report monthly and trailing-12-month; aim for net revenue churn 5% in SaaS peers, or better.
• CAC payback: Customer Acquisition Cost / monthly contribution margin per customer; target payback 12-18 months for growth-stage SaaS, shorter for lower-growth businesses.
• AR days, Cash conversion cycle, and LTV:CAC ratio (lifetime value to CAC) - show trends, not point-in-time.

Practical steps: define KPI formulas in a data dictionary, automate pulls from ERP/CRM, and reconciliate KPIs to GAAP metrics in a footnote. One clean tip: publish both rule-based (exact formula) and reconciled (GAAP link) values so sell-side analysts can replicate your model. If KPI drift appears, flag the driver and corrective actions within the same release.

Plan quarterly reporting cadence and investor-relations materials

Public markets expect a predictable rhythm - make reporting a program, not a scramble.

One-liner: set timelines and owners for every deliverable and stick to them.

Concrete cadence and owners (example calendar):

• Week 0 (quarter close): Finance closes books; Controller owns preliminary close.
• Week 2: Finance issues draft results; CFO reviews and signs off on guidance.
• Week 3: Legal and IR review press release and Form filings; Legal signs off on disclosures.
• Day of release: publish press release, investor deck, and Form 8-K (if material); IR hosts earnings call within 24-72 hours.
• Post-call week: post transcript, update FAQ, and refresh investor deck on the website.

Required materials and best practices:

• Press release with reconciliations to GAAP. IR: own distribution and Q&A logs.
• Investor presentation with clear revenue bridges, KPI trends, and sensitivity highlights; keep slides under 20 for earnings calls.
• Quarterly Form filings (10-Q) and ad hoc 8-Ks for material events; coordinate Legal and Finance for timely filing.
• Earnings call script and prepared analyst Q&A; record and post the webcast.
• Maintain a one-page KPI dashboard for quick investor emails and roadshow packs.

Prepare escalation plans: if quarter misses guidance, draft the miss explanation and remediation plan within 48 hours. Practical next step: Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday and IR: prepare a one-page KPI dashboard for the roadshow - assign owners and deadlines now.

Conclusion: Close the IPO model loop and move to execution

One-liner: what this model must deliver

You're finalizing an IPO model to set the public valuation, size the offer, and show investors a credible path after listing.

One clear line: A disciplined IPO model connects verified inputs to investor-facing valuation and clear post-IPO plans.

Practical framing: match audited FY2025 GAAPs (revenue, net income, cash) to the model inputs, force out reconciliations, and document every adjustment so the roadshow and SEC reviewers see the same story you sell to investors.

One-liner for your deck: keep it short and repeatable - investors remember a single crisp claim, not paragraphs.

Next step: build the 13-week cash roll-forward

One-liner: short-term cash clarity prevents last-minute pricing and covenant surprises.

Why 13 weeks: the roadshow, pricing, and settlement often compress to a quarter; the underwriters will ask. Build a weekly roll-forward with line items that tie to FY2025s.

Step-by-step

• Pull FY2025 ending cash per audited balance sheet (use the exact FY2025 cash figure).
• List weekly cash inflows: projected customer collections, committed financings, and expected IPO proceeds (post-fees).
• List weekly outflows: payroll, vendors, rent, interest, taxes, planned capex, and one-off deal costs.
• Reconcile to bank statements and most recent AR/AP aging - update assumptions if >14 days variance.
• Calculate weekly net cash change and cumulative cash; flag any weeks where cash < $0 or covenant thresholds.

Here's the quick math example (replace with your FY2025 numbers): If FY2025 ending cash = $40.0m and projected 13-week net outflow = $18.2m, ending 13-week cash = $21.8m. What this estimate hides: timing skews in collections or a single large vendor payment can swing weeks; sensitivity-run weekly +/-25%.

Deliverables: a single-sheet weekly roll-forward, a one-page driver memo, and a reconciled bank-to-model schedule. Owner: Finance operations prepares; Treasury reviews.

Next step: build base and scenario models for the roadshow

One-liner: show a defendable base case, a plausible upside, and a conservative downside with clear assumptions tied to FY2025 figures.

Model architecture

• Base: use audited FY2025 as the starting point, apply management-justified growth and margin curves for years 1-5.
• Upside: +25-40% revenue acceleration vs base in year 1-2, faster margin recovery, and conservative multiple expansion assumptions.
• Downside: revenue -15-30% vs base, margin compression, delayed capex; include covenant breaches and liquidity stress.
• Valuation: present comps-based range and a DCF using an explicit 3-5 year forecast then a terminal value. Run WACC sensitivity (example sweep: 8.0% to 12.0%) and terminal multiple range.
• Sensitivity matrix: revenue growth vs. EBITDA margin; show per-share outcomes and implied IPO price ranges.

Practical checks

• Tie every assumption back to FY2025 KPIs: AR days, churn, CAC payback, gross margin.
• Document one-page rationale for each major driver - comparable deals, customer pipeline, or signed contracts.
• Stress-test: run a cash-stall scenario where collections slip 30% and show when a covenant or liquidity event triggers.

Roadshow-ready outputs: three valuation cases, a 13-week cash roll, and one‑page FAQs (assumptions, sensitivities, covenant triggers). Finance: draft the 13-week cash view and base/scenario model by Friday; Treasury: validate bank balances and committed facilities by Friday.