Estimating a Company's Growth Potential

Introduction

You're sizing a company's growth potential to guide an investment or strategy decision, so start with the company's FY2025 baseline metrics and a clear time split: near-term (12-36 months) and long-term (3-7 years). One-liner: combine market sizing, unit economics, competitive positioning, and scenario modeling. Here's the quick math approach: use FY2025 revenue, gross margin, customer acquisition cost, and churn as your base case, stress-test upside and downside scenarios over the 12-36 month and 3-7 year horizons, and convert those scenarios into probability-weighted cash-flow outcomes - this gives a practical, tradable view of upside, risk, and required milestones (defintely focus on cash burn). Finance: assemble FY2025 revenue, margins, CAC, and churn by Wednesday.

Key Takeaways

• Start from FY2025 baseline metrics and split analysis into near-term (12-36 months) and long-term (3-7 years).
• Combine market sizing, unit economics, competitive positioning, and scenario modeling to estimate growth potential and milestones.
• Track core KPIs: revenue composition/growth, gross & contribution margins, CAC, churn/retention, LTV, payback, and cash-flow metrics.
• Build a base-case DCF plus conservative and aggressive scenarios, stress-test key levers (e.g., ±100 bps churn, ±10% CAC) and run a 13-week cash view.
• Use probability-weighted cash-flow outcomes to decide: focus on cash burn and required milestones; Finance to assemble FY2025 metrics by Wednesday and deliver the scenario model + 13-week cash plan by Friday.

Key financial and operating metrics (use FY2025 as base)

Revenue growth rate and revenue composition by product and region

You're sizing growth using FY2025 as the baseline; start by locking the official FY2025 top-line from the audited income statement and segment disclosures.

One-liner: report YoY, multi-year CAGR, and percent mix by product and region every month.

Steps to calculate and validate

• Pull FY2025 revenue and FY2024 revenue from the income statement; compute year-over-year (YoY) growth: (Revenue2025 - Revenue2024) / Revenue2024.
• Compute short-term CAGR for the horizon you care about: CAGR = (Revenue_end / Revenue_start)^(1/years) - 1. Use FY2023-FY2025 for a 2-year view if you need near-term momentum.
• Break down FY2025 revenue by product and by region using the segment notes; express each as percent of total revenue to get mix and concentration.
• Adjust for one-offs: strip M&A, divestitures, large one-time contracts, and FX to get like-for-like organic growth (LFL).
• Use rolling 12-months (RTM) and trailing-12 (TTM) views to smooth seasonality and show trend.

Best practices and pitfalls

• Report both absolute dollars and percentages; investors care about scale and rate.
• Separate recurring (ARR/retainable) from transaction revenue; recurring growth is stickier.
• Flag customer concentration: if top 5 customers > 25% of FY2025 revenue, mark as high concentration risk.
• Watch channel vs direct sales mix - shifting to channel can boost near-term bookings but lower margin.

What to deliver

• Dashboard: FY2025 revenue, YoY, 3-year CAGR, product % mix, region % mix, organic vs reported growth.
• One clean chart: FY2023-FY2025 stacked by product and region, plus a LFL growth line.

Unit economics: gross margin, contribution margin, and customer lifetime value (LTV)

You must translate FY2025 profitability into per-unit economics so forecasts rest on real economics, not top-line hopes.

One-liner: compute gross margin, per-unit contribution, then convert that into LTV using realistic retention or churn assumptions.

Definitions and formulas

• Gross margin = (Revenue - Cost of Goods Sold) / Revenue. Pull FY2025 COGS from the income statement and calculate at company and product level.
• Contribution margin = (Revenue - Variable costs) / Revenue. Define variable costs for your business (e.g., hosting, transaction fees, direct fulfillment).
• LTV (subscription model) = ARPU per period × gross margin % / churn rate (same period). For non-subscription: LTV = Avg. order value × purchase frequency × gross margin × expected lifetime.

Step-by-step to build FY2025 unit metrics

• Segment COGS by product in FY2025: allocate direct costs (materials, hosting) and identify variable vs fixed.
• Calculate product-level gross margins for FY2025; highlight any product <30% or > 70% as outliers depending on industry (software vs hardware).
• Build per-customer unit P&L: revenue per customer (ARPU), direct cost per customer, contribution margin per customer for FY2025 cohorts.
• Estimate churn/retention from FY2025 cohorts and compute LTV; use median and 80th percentile to show range.

Best practices and caveats

• Use cohort-level gross margin - aggregate figures hide product mix effects.
• Include customer acquisition servicing costs (onboarding) in first-period variable costs when calculating contribution margin.
• Test sensitivity: show how LTV changes if churn moves +100 bps or margin compresses by 500 bps - this maps directly to valuation.
• What this hides: accounting capitalized costs (e.g., R&D) can mask true cash unit economics - always reconcile to cash.

Customer metrics and capital efficiency: CAC, churn, retention, cohort ARPU, free cash flow, OCF margin, payback

You need customer economics and cash efficiency together - growth without cash efficiency breaks quickly. Build these FY2025 views at monthly and cohort levels.

One-liner: measure CAC vs LTV, track churn and ARPU by cohort, and report FCF and payback to know if growth is affordable.

Customer metric steps

• CAC = (Sales + Marketing spend in FY2025) / (New customers acquired in FY2025). Break out by channel (paid ads, sales, partnerships).
• Churn = customers lost during period / customers at period start. Use cohort churn (acquisition-month cohorts) to get accurate lifetime curves.
• Retention and cohort ARPU: build cohort table (acquisition month × months since acquisition); report ARPU and retention at 1, 3, 12 months.
• Show CAC payback period = CAC / contribution margin per month. Flag payback above 12 months as slower, above 24 months as risky for high-burn growth companies.

Capital efficiency and cash metrics

• Operating cash flow (OCF) margin = Operating cash flow (FY2025) / Revenue (FY2025). Pull CFO from cash flow statement.
• Free cash flow (FCF) = Operating cash flow (FY2025) - Capital expenditures (FY2025). Report absolute FCF and FCF margin.
• Run a 13-week cash view using FY2025 starting cash, FY2025 average weekly collections, and expected outflows; this defintely surfaces near-term liquidity gaps.

Practical controls and monitoring

• Track CAC payback by channel and stop spend if payback extends beyond your threshold.
• Use weekly sales-to-cash mapping to reconcile bookings to collections; this tightens the 13-week model.
• Stress-test: model a 10% increase in CAC and a 100 bps rise in churn to show impact on LTV, payback, and FCF for FY2025 base assumptions.
• Owner and next step: Finance - build the FY2025 cohort table, CAC/LTV worksheet, and the 13-week cash plan by Friday.

Market sizing and demand drivers

You're sizing a company's growth potential to guide an investment or strategy call; focus on converting big-market estimates into realistic, time-bound share projections anchored to FY2025 results. Quick takeaway: tie TAM→SAM→SOM to FY2025 revenue, validate demand with primary signals, and map tailwinds versus structural timing.

Estimate TAM, SAM, and SOM

Start with plain definitions: TAM is the total dollar demand for the product category; SAM is the portion your product/service can serve given channel, geographies, and use cases; SOM is the share you can realistically win in a given time window.

Steps to build each estimate:

• Top‑down: pull FY2025 industry spend from authoritative sources (Gartner, IDC, Statista, government data).
• Bottom‑up: multiply addressable units × FY2025 price per unit (or ARPU). Use the company's FY2025 mix where possible.
• Hybrid: reconcile top‑down and bottom‑up, explain gaps, and pick a conservative midpoint.
• Time‑box the SOM: calculate 12-36 month SOM and 3-7 year SOM separately.

Example math (plug in your FY2025 numbers): if Company FY2025 revenue = $150,000,000 and your 3‑year SAM = $5,000,000,000, current SOM = 3.0% (150M / 5B). If a realistic 3‑year target SOM is 6.0%, revenue target = $300,000,000. Here's the quick math: double share → double revenue.

What this estimate hides: assumptions on pricing, channel reach, and competitor responses-document them and stress‑test by ±50% on penetration rates.

Validate demand with primary signals

Don't trust TAM alone; use observable, testable signals that map to conversion and pricing. One-liner: run real tests tied to FY2025 customer economics.

Primary validation levers and practical checks:

• Search and intent: measure 12‑month FY2025 search volume growth for category terms with Google Trends and paid keyword volumes; look for sustained >10% YoY increases for green signals.
• Pricing tolerance: run A/B price experiments or conjoint surveys. Flag success if willingness‑to‑pay supports a price that keeps LTV:CAC ≥ 3:1.
• Pilot conversion: run 30-90 day pilots with clear KPIs. A healthy pilot converts to paid at ≥ 10% within 90 days for B2C, ≥ 20% for targeted B2B pilots is strong-track CAC and payback.
• Sales funnel: track lead→opportunity→closed rates. If FY2025 funnel shows lead→closed at 1%, you need more top‑of‑funnel or channel partners.

Concrete steps: run one paid acquisition test at scale (≥ $50,000 spend) to measure CAC, and a pilot with 100 customers to measure conversion and early churn; then extrapolate to FY2025 cohorts. If CAC rises 10% in tests, reprice or tighten targeting; if pilot conversion is below target, fix onboarding first.

Quantify growth tailwinds and structural ceilings

List tailwinds quantitatively and map timing to adoption curves. One-liner: convert qualitative tailwinds into % upside by year.

How to quantify each tailwind:

• Regulation: map policy changes to addressable spend. Example step: identify rule effective date, estimate incremental spend per regulated entity, multiply by number of entities to get incremental TAM per year.
• Digital adoption: use compound annual growth rates (CAGR) from FY2020-FY2025 benchmarks (e.g., cloud adoption, mobile penetration) to project addressable unit growth; translate adoption % points into revenue uplift.
• Demographics: use census and labor data to project user base growth and ARPU shifts; convert demographic cohort growth into headcount or users and then into revenue.

Modeling ceilings and timing: apply an S‑curve (logistic) adoption model for long horizon TAMs. Example: a large TAM may only reach 10-20% service penetration in 5 years and 40-60% in 10 years depending on switching friction. Always show alternate timing buckets (0-3y, 3-7y, 7-10y).

Practical guardrails: cap optimistic TAM conversion by adoption frictions-cost to switch, regulatory lag, incumbent inertia. If conversion requires enterprise replace‑outs, assume a 5-10 year glide path unless you have clear displacement evidence. Keep one small defintely‑useful sensitivity: vary time‑to‑50% penetration by ±2 years to see valuation impact.

Next step: Finance - build the FY2025‑anchored TAM/SAM/SOM worksheet, run one paid acquisition test with $50,000 budget, and deliver inputs for scenario modeling by Friday.

Competitive positioning and moat

You're deciding whether a company can defend growth and expand share - so start by mapping competitors, scoring real differentiators, and spotting structural advantages and weak spots that change valuation. Direct takeaway: a clean competitor map plus objective moat metrics lets you convert qualitative strength into numbers you can stress-test in a model.

Map direct and indirect competitors and share dynamics

One-liner: draw a simple quadrant and a share table, then update it with FY2025 numbers.

Steps to follow:

• Define the market boundary - product set, geography, and buyer segment.
• List direct competitors (same product/price), indirect (substitutes), and adjacent (platforms that could expand into your market).
• Collect FY2025 revenue for each player and compute market share: share = player FY2025 revenue / total market FY2025 revenue.
• Chart share dynamics: 12‑month YoY change and 3‑year CAGR ending FY2025.
• Score competitive pressure by channel: pricing, distribution, and product overlap.

Practical example and quick math: if total FY2025 market = $1,200,000,000, Company Name FY2025 revenue = $120,000,000, competitor A = $300,000,000, then Company Name share = 10% and competitor A = 25%. What this hides: market definition materially changes denominators - narrow vs broad TAM moves shares a lot.

Best practices:

• Use at least two independent sources for FY2025 revenue (SEC filings, industry reports).
• Update the map monthly for new wins, price moves, or M&A.
• Flag emerging indirect threats separately - they often evolve faster than direct rivals.

Assess differentiators: tech/IP, distribution, brand, and switching costs

One-liner: convert qualitative advantages into three measurable levers you can model.

Checklist - translate into KPIs:

• Tech/IP: count granted patents, active patents, and FY2025 R&D spend; test defensibility by mapping patent families to core features.
• Distribution: measure percent of revenue from owned channels vs partners in FY2025; higher partner dependence increases variable risk.
• Brand: use NPS (net promoter score), ARPU premium, and price elasticity from FY2025 pilots or A/B tests.
• Switching costs: quantify migration time and cost for customers (implementation days, one‑time fees) and revenue at risk if churn increases by 100 bps.

Practical scoring method (useable in a model): rate each pillar 1-5, then convert to a multiplier on retention or pricing power. Example: tech/IP = 4, distribution = 3, brand = 2 → implies defensibility high on product, middling on go‑to‑market, weak on brand premium. Here's the quick math: improve retention by 150 bps if tech/IP score >3; at FY2025 ARPU $1,200, that retention lift adds concrete revenue per cohort. What this estimate hides: correlation between pillars - weak distribution can mask strong IP in financials.

Actionable tests:

• Run a FY2025 cohort migration test: offer 10% discount to new channel and measure 30‑day conversion lift.
• Conduct patent freedom‑to‑operate review and estimate litigation exposure as FY2025 legal reserve percent.
• Set a pilot to measure switch cost (days to go‑live) and use that as input to churn sensitivity.

Evaluate scale advantages and honest weak spots

One-liner: quantify how scale moves margins and where concentration or channel risk could tank growth.

Scale advantages to measure:

• Unit cost declines - track FY2025 unit cost and model elasticities: a doubling of volume typically yields 10-30% per‑unit cost drop depending on fixed vs variable mix.
• Network effects - measure value per additional user (engagement, ARPU uplift) and show breakpoints where effects become self‑sustaining.
• Data moats - count unique datapoints collected in FY2025 and estimate R&D uplift from that data (time to replicate for competitors).

Common weak spots - be blunt:

• Customer concentration: if top 3 customers account for > 40-50% of FY2025 revenue, model a downside case where one large customer reduces spend by 30%.
• Single‑channel distribution: if > 70% of sales flow through one partner, include a shock scenario that cuts that channel by 50%.
• Product gaps: map product maturity versus competitor feature set; quantify addressable lost revenue as percentage of FY2025 revenue.

Steps to mitigate and test:

• Run concentration stress: simulate loss of top customer → immediate FY2025 revenue drop and 12‑month recovery path.
• Diversify channels: set KPI to reduce single‑channel share to 40% within 12 months; Sales: execute two new channel partnerships by Q3.
• Invest modularly: fund the highest ROI feature (estimated payback 9-12 months) to close product gaps without overspending.

Owner and immediate next step: Strategy - produce a competitor share table and a FY2025 pivot stress test by Friday; Product - draft a 90‑day plan to close the top product gap. Also, defintely log the top 3 assumptions for monthly review.

Growth model and scenario analysis

You're sizing a company's future value to decide whether to invest or allocate resources; do a scenario-driven DCF, stress the drivers, and run a tight 13‑week cash plan. Quick takeaway: expect valuation to swing materially with small changes in churn, CAC, or FCF margin - model those levers explicitly.

Build a base-case DCF and two scenarios: conservative and aggressive

You want a clear, replicable model that starts with FY2025 as the base year and shows three outcomes.

One-liner: build a 5-7 year projection, convert to free cash flow, discount to today, then compute terminal value.

• Step 1 - set FY2025 base inputs: revenue $100,000,000, base gross margin 60%, operating/FCF margin 8%, WACC 10%, terminal growth 3%.
• Step 2 - project revenue path (example 7 years): 2026 +25% → $125M; 2027 +20% → $150M; 2028 +15% → $172.5M; 2029 +10% → $189.75M; 2030 +8% → $204.93M; 2031 +6% → $217.23M; 2032 +5% → $228.09M.
• Step 3 - compute FCF each year: revenue × 8% → 2026 FCF $10.0M, 2027 $12.0M, ..., 2032 $18.25M.
• Step 4 - discount FCFs at WACC and compute terminal value (Gordon): terminal ≈ $269M, present value of cashflows + terminal → enterprise value ≈ $207M (example).
• Step 5 - make two alternate scenario sets: conservative (lower growth, lower FCF margin, higher WACC) and aggressive (higher growth, higher margin, lower WACC). Example outputs: conservative EV ≈ $68.5M; aggressive EV ≈ $674M.

Best practices: keep assumptions explicit, version-control the model, and export a one‑page sensitivity table (NPV vs. WACC and terminal growth).

What this estimate hides: modeled growth timing and margin recovery are the biggest sources of error - be explicit about commercialization timing and capital needs.

Stress-test revenue drivers: pricing, volume growth, and retention changes

Stress tests show which assumptions move value most; test pricing, volume, and retention separately and combined.

One-liner: run single‑variable shocks (±10-30%), then multi‑variable stress runs that reflect real execution risks.

• Pricing shock: model a +5% price rise and a -5% price decline; map to revenue and gross margin. Example: +5% price with steady volumes lifts FCF margin from 8% to ~8.6% - reprice the DCF to see value impact.
• Volume / growth shock: cut projected CAGR by 300 bps across the forecast horizon (e.g., 25%→22% first year). Recompute revenue curve and FCFs; this often reduces terminal scale and NPV sharply.
• Retention (churn) shock: for subscription economics, use LTV = ARPU × gross margin / churn. Example: ARPU $1,000, gross margin 60%, churn 5% → LTV = $12,000; churn rising to 6% → LTV = $10,000 (-16.7%).
• Combined shock: simulate churn +100 bps while CAC rises +10% - propagate to higher marketing spend, longer payback, lower FCF margin (example: FCF margin drops from 8
  

  Risks, catalysts, and timing

  
  

  Risks: top exposures and measurable triggers

  
  

  You're deciding whether growth assumptions hold up against real-world shocks; focus on four clear risk buckets: macro, execution, margin, and regulation.

  Quantify each risk with probability bands and impact ranges so decisions are data-driven not wishful. One-liner: track signal, measure hit, act.

  • Macro slowdown - Monitor GDP and sector PMI; assign a baseline probability of 20-40% for a moderate slowdown within 12 months. If new bookings fall > 15% YoY or receivables DSO rise > 10 days, treat as escalation for scenario A.
  • Execution failure - Use milestone slippage as a proxy: a delay > 60 days on a core product launch typically cuts projected FY+1 revenue by 10-30%. Flag projects with >2 missed milestones for corrective action.
  • Margin compression - Watch gross margin and cost per unit; a 200-500 bps margin decline converts to ~10-30% EBIT drop depending on leverage. Trigger plan B if gross margin falls > 150 bps vs FY2025 baseline.
  • Regulatory shifts - Model compliance cost shock as a one-time hit of 0.5-3% of revenue plus ongoing margin pressure. Escalate if proposed regs affect > 15% of addressable market or core revenue streams.
  
  

  Practical checks: monitor week-over-week pipeline conversion, payment days, and customer NPS monthly; treat sustained declines (3 consecutive months) as early-warning. What this hides: correlations amplify risk - macro + execution failures usually hit together.

  Near-term catalysts: what moves the needle and how to validate

  
  

  Identify catalysts that can materially change the growth path within 12-36 months: product launches, large customer wins, and new market entry. One-liner: convert catalysts into probabilities and timelines.

  • Product launches - Require a staged validation plan: pilot conversion rate, pricing tolerance test, and channel readiness. Use these thresholds: pilot conversion > 5-10% and willingness-to-pay uplift > 10% to move from pilot to rollout.
  • Large contracts - Treat any single contract > 10% of FY2025 revenue as material; > 25% creates concentration risk. Require signed MSA (master services agreement), payment schedule, and reference checks before counting in base-case revenue.
  • Market entry - For geographic or adjacent-market entry, mandate a local GTM test: 3-month CAC measurement, two sales-qualified pipeline metrics, and local regulatory clearance. If CAC <= 1.5x baseline and 90-day payback holds, scale.
  
  

  Validation steps: run A/B pricing tests, require pilot KPIs to meet prespecified thresholds, and model revenue recognition timing conservatively. If a catalyst has <50% probability, keep it in upside scenarios only.

  Prioritizations, mitigations, and monitoring cadence

  
  

  Mitigate the top risks with prioritized, measurable actions: cost flexibility, channel diversification, and milestone-based hiring. One-liner: slow hiring, speed reviews, tighten cash levers.

  • Cost flexibility - Shift fixed costs to variable where possible; target 20-40% of operating spend as variable within 6 months. Build trigger bands: reduce discretionary OPEX by 25% at 60-day cash stress, pause hiring at 30-day runway.
  • Diversified channels - Limit any single channel to 30% of revenue. Add 2 new channels or partners per year, each with break-even CAC horizons and a 90-day test window.
  • Milestone-based hiring - Approve hires tied to revenue or product milestones (e.g., hire A when ARR grows +15% or when a feature achieves > 10% adoption in pilots).
  
  

  Set a clear monitoring cadence with owners and escalation rules:

  • Weekly sales sync - Owner: Head of Sales; review top 10 deals, win rates, and pipeline velocity.
  • Monthly KPI review - Owner: FP&A; update revenue vs plan, churn, CAC, LTV, gross margin, and operating cash flow; alert if variance > 10%.
  • Quarterly strategy review - Owner: CEO; reassess scenario assumptions, capital needs, and market posture.
  • 13-week cash view - Owner: Finance; refresh weekly, include worst-case collections and a covenant checklist; defintely model stress runs.
  
  

  Next step: Finance - draft the 13-week cash view and scenario dashboard by Friday; Sales and Product to deliver pilot conversion and contract diligence within seven days.

  
  

  Decision rule and next steps

  
  

  Decision rule: invest if upside materially exceeds downside

  
  

  You're deciding whether to put capital into growth - start by comparing scenario outcomes on a single metric: present value (PV) or enterprise value (EV) from discounted cash flows tied to FY2025 as the base year.

  One-liner: invest when the aggressive-scenario EV upside is at least 3x the downside in the conservative scenario (adjust target to your risk appetite).

  Steps to apply the rule:

  • Use FY2025 actuals: revenue, gross profit, operating cash flow, capex, and net debt.
  • Build three DCFs (base, conservative, aggressive) using FY2025 as Year 0 cash flows.
  • Discount with a market-appropriate WACC; if uncertain, test 8-14%.
  • Compute upside/downside as (EV_aggressive - EV_base) / (EV_base - EV_conservative).
  • Flag deal if ratio ≥ 3.0 (or your chosen multiple).
  
  

  Here's the quick math: if EV_aggressive = $900m, EV_conservative = $400m, upside/downside = (900-650)/(650-400)=1.0 - not enough.

  What this estimate hides: sensitivity to terminal growth and WACC; always show ranges for both.

  Actionable next steps: build FY2025-based model, run sensitivity sweeps, validate top 3 assumptions

  
  

  Start with a single, auditable workbook keyed to FY2025 numbers and timestamped inputs.

  One-liner: make the model small, testable, and driven by three levers - price, volume, retention.

  Concrete steps and best practices:

  • Ingest FY2025 P&L, cash flow, and balance sheet into one sheet.
  • Project 7 years forward with explicit yearly drivers; lock FY2025 as the calibration year.
  • Build scenario switches for growth rate, gross margin, and SG&A scaling.
  • Run sensitivity sweeps on key levers: revenue ±30%, gross margin ±500 bps, churn ±100 bps, CAC ±10-25%.
  • Calculate KPI-linked outcomes: payback period, LTV/CAC, FCF margin in years 1-3.
  • Produce tornado charts and a table showing how a 1% change in each input changes EV.
  • Validate top 3 assumptions with evidence: customer pilots, contract backlogs, third-party market research, or management-provided cohort data.
  • Document sources and confidence levels for each assumption (High/Medium/Low).
  
  

  Quick example: if FY2025 revenue = $120m, test a base CAGR of 20%, conservative 8%, aggressive 35% and show resulting EV ranges.

  What to watch: correlated risks - e.g., higher CAC often comes with higher short-term growth but compresses LTV/CAC; call out these trade-offs.

  Owner and timing: Finance - deliver scenario model and 13-week cash plan by Friday

  
  

  Assign clear ownership and deadlines so decisions aren't delayed.

  One-liner: Finance owns the model and the short-term cash view; deliver both by the deadline.

  Requested deliverables and timeline:

  • Scenario DCF workbook (FY2025-calibrated) - tabbed: inputs, projections, scenarios, sensitivities, outputs.
  • 13-week rolling cash plan showing opening balance, receipts, disbursements, and ending balance weekly.
  • Dashboard: EV ranges, upside/downside multiple, top 5 drivers, and three validated assumptions.
  • Deliver by Friday end of day; include a 30-minute walkthrough with the leadership team on Monday.
  
  

  Operational checklist for Finance:

  • Pull FY2025 trial balance and bank statements.
  • Reconcile one-off items and normalize for non-recurring gains/losses.
  • Model covenant headroom and earliest liquidity cliffs.
  • Flag scenarios where cash balance $0 in 13 weeks and propose mitigations.
  
  

  Next owner action: Finance - draft the FY2025-based scenario model and 13-week cash view, circulate to CEO and Head of Strategy by Friday.

  
  

  

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